Trump is going to get 'trounced' in the midterms — and knows it, Anthony Scaramucci tells CNBC

Anthony Scaramucci predicted President Donald Trump would be “trounced” in Tuesday’s midterms; CNBC’s survey found 65% disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy and 80% rated the economy fair or poor. Prediction markets were pricing in roughly a three-in-four chance of Democrats taking control of the Senate, though the article notes these platforms are not substitutes for political polls. Scaramucci also said he was bearish on an Iran diplomatic breakthrough, following reported U.S. defensive strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, and argued that war is unfavorable for business and stocks.

Analysis

The investable signal is not Scaramucci’s election call; it is the collision of uncertain congressional control with a live Iran escalation risk. A change in control could raise oversight and slow legislation, but investigations are mainly a volatility and policy-visibility channel—not, by themselves, a reliable earnings catalyst. Avoid treating prediction-market odds or one former official’s view as confirmation of the result.

Near term, Iran is the more asymmetric macro risk: further strikes could lift crude and inflation expectations, pressuring consumer-sensitive businesses and complicating the rate outlook. A diplomatic path would unwind some of that risk premium quickly. Over 1–3 months, watch for sustained oil moves and evidence of broader military involvement; over 6–18 months, the more durable issue is policy uncertainty around fiscal, regulatory, and energy decisions, not a clean partisan-sector winner. The article provides no independently verified estimate of the conflict’s duration or economic cost, so do not infer a fundamental oil-supply shock from the rhetoric alone.

Contrarian angle: markets may over-attribute any post-election volatility to U.S. politics while underweighting the direct oil/inflation transmission from Iran. Conversely, buying broad equity protection solely on a predicted electoral outcome risks paying for a headline that may not change near-term cash flows.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No broad election-direction trade on this source alone. Reassess after certified results and control of both chambers are clear; distinguish immediate headline volatility from actual legislative capacity.
• Consider a small, defined-risk WTI call spread as an event hedge only if crude exposure is material and option pricing is not already elevated. Reduce or close it if strikes cease, shipping and supply flows remain intact, or crude gives back the escalation move.
• Stress-test consumer discretionary and transport exposure against a sustained oil rise rather than initiating shorts on the election narrative. Falsify the downside case if crude risk premium fades and company guidance does not show fuel or demand pressure.
• Track Treasury breakevens, crude, and broad equity volatility over the next 1–3 months. Escalating military involvement or a persistent oil-price move would strengthen the hedge case; a credible negotiated path would argue for removing it.