Companies need to fortify supply chains for “a flock of black swan” events, says Toll Group executive chairman Thomas Knudsen

Toll Group executive chairman Thomas Knudson said repeated shocks since 2020—including the COVID pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, U.S. tariffs, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—mean companies should build supply chains with spare capacity and backup transport routes. Standard Chartered’s survey found ASEAN executives naming geo-economic actions as a top-three trade concern rose from 49% over the past year to 57% for the next three to five years. ASEAN’s 11 economies total about $4.5 trillion and grow roughly 4.5% annually, but only 22% of bloc trade occurs within the region; executives also discussed integrating payment systems, potentially using blockchain, tokenization, or stablecoins.

Analysis

The investable distinction is not “more supply chains,” but who can charge for redundancy. Multi-modal logistics providers may gain pricing leverage when customers pay for reserved capacity and route optionality; absent that, extra nodes, equipment and inventory dilute returns. Toll Group’s comments are industry testimony, not evidence that its parent or peers have secured profitable contracts.

ASEAN’s strategic appeal should not be confused with near-term intra-regional integration. New factories may remain export platforms dependent on imported inputs, while differing standards, customs processes and payment rules limit local sourcing. This favors operators able to manage cross-border complexity, but makes a broad ASEAN re-rating vulnerable to disappointment. A regional payments overlay is a longer-dated option, not a current earnings thesis: interoperability, FX settlement, compliance and cyber controls are harder than the technology demonstration.

Near term (days to weeks), renewed Gulf disruption would raise freight, fuel and insurance costs and increase route volatility; pass-through lags could hurt shippers and logistics margins. Over 1–3 months, look for evidence in freight-forwarder pricing, contract renewals, utilization and customer inventory behavior. Over 6–18 months, duplicated capacity could support specialist logistics but also lock in lower asset turns and higher working capital. Contrarian view: redundancy is often a cost center, and trade diversion to ASEAN does not guarantee durable regional value capture. A tariff détente, easing route risk, or stalled ASEAN coordination would weaken the thesis.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Prefer, selectively, logistics operators with demonstrable multi-modal capabilities and contract repricing over undifferentiated freight-volume exposure. Do not treat Toll Group’s remarks as proof of earnings upside; verify utilization, contract wins and surcharge recovery before adding exposure.
• Avoid a broad ASEAN supply-chain long based on announced factory relocations alone. Revisit only when company disclosures show local supplier depth, sustained capacity use and acceptable working-capital returns; a factory announcement without those indicators is a watch item, not a catalyst.
• For the next 1–3 months, monitor freight rates, fuel and insurance costs, and logistics-company guidance for pass-through timing. If costs rise faster than realized pricing or utilization weakens, reduce logistics exposure; renewed Gulf route disruption is the key near-term downside catalyst for shippers.
• Treat ASEAN payment interoperability, tokenization and stablecoins as a long-dated watchlist theme rather than a trade. Require evidence of regulatory coordination, live cross-border settlement and commercial adoption; fragmentation or a failed pilot would falsify the investment case.