Research firm calls Anthropic the ‘most ridiculous IPO of 2026’, says it may be worth $144bn

Research firm New Constructs called Anthropic’s planned IPO “an unprecedented test of investor gullibility” and estimated the company’s equity value at as little as $144bn. That is 93% below the $2tn valuation Anthropic is reportedly targeting; the excerpt provides no IPO timing or market reaction.

Analysis

The cited 93% valuation gap is a single research firm’s estimate versus a reportedly targeted IPO valuation—not evidence that either figure is a cleared market price. With no disclosed financials, share structure, or valuation method in the excerpt, the useful signal is the risk of a wide expectation reset, not a precise fair value. A large public-company valuation could also become a reference point for private AI marks and future funding rounds; if pricing disappoints, venture portfolios and other high-growth AI issuers may face tougher scrutiny. Conversely, infrastructure suppliers could still benefit if Anthropic sustains compute spending, so a valuation reset need not imply weaker near-term demand for AI capacity.

Near term, there is no direct listed-equity trade in Anthropic. The 1–3 month catalysts are filing details and price discovery: revenue quality, customer concentration, compute commitments, gross margins, dilution, and governance. Over 6–18 months, the key test is whether monetization catches up with infrastructure costs and public-market expectations. The contrarian point: a skeptical report can be directionally right about valuation risk while overstating what can be inferred from a fragmentary article; do not treat its estimate as a short signal on AI generally.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not trade the reported valuation gap as a standalone catalyst; wait for an S-1 or equivalent verified disclosures and compare the proposed valuation with revenue quality, compute obligations, dilution, and governance.
• If an IPO is filed at an aggressive valuation, consider limiting or avoiding initial exposure rather than shorting an unavailable security. Reassess after price discovery and the first disclosure cycle.
• Watch public AI infrastructure and cloud exposures for a second-order effect: weaker financing or monetization expectations could pressure spending outlooks, while continued compute commitments could support demand. Avoid a broad sector hedge unless supplier guidance or spending data confirms deterioration.
• Falsifiers for the bearish valuation thesis include verified disclosures showing durable, diversified revenue and improving unit economics; confirmation of heavy compute commitments without corresponding monetization would strengthen it.