These 2 Stocks Have Skyrocketed in 2026. Here’s Why I’d Stay Away

The article argues that Moderna and Iovance Biotherapeutics are overvalued after shares rose 570% and 433%, respectively, this year. Moderna’s $77 billion market cap would require about $5 billion in profit by 2031 and a 27.1 forward P/E under the article’s assumptions; the author questions whether it can achieve that. Iovance reported Q2 revenue up nearly 66% year over year to $99 million and narrowed its loss per share to $0.11 from $0.33, but the author cites a $6.6 billion market cap, manufacturing and administration complexity, and clinical and regulatory risks as reasons to avoid both stocks.

Analysis

The key valuation risk is execution asymmetry, not simply whether either therapy works. For MRNA, positive melanoma data may validate the platform but do not establish that a broad pipeline can convert into durable, high-margin earnings; the Merck profit split further limits the direct economics of the lead oncology asset. A setback could therefore compress the platform premium before it materially changes near-term vaccine revenue. Conversely, successful follow-on data could make a blanket short costly.

For IOVA, the commercial bottleneck is capacity: patient-specific manufacturing, treatment-center availability, and the patient journey can constrain treated-patient volume even when demand exists. Watch actual starts, manufacturing turnaround, and cancellations—not just reported revenue growth. Slow throughput could also increase the time to cash-flow breakeven and financing risk; faster center utilization would invalidate the bear case. Expansion into new markets or indications is upside, but adds regulatory and operational dependencies rather than immediate diversification.

The article’s valuation conclusions are not independently established by the supplied data. Near term, clinical headlines can overwhelm fundamentals; over 1–3 months, earnings detail on IOVA throughput and MRNA pipeline updates matter more. Over 6–18 months, repeatable commercial execution and evidence beyond a single oncology program are the tests. A relative MRNA short/MRK long is not a clean hedge: Merck’s shared economics are only one component of a much larger business, and the article provides no basis to size that offset.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid initiating an unhedged, thesis-only short in either name from this article alone; the clinical upside and biotech headline volatility create meaningful squeeze risk.
• Put IOVA on an execution watchlist: require sequential improvement in patient starts, manufacturing turnaround, treatment-center utilization, and cash burn before underwriting the path to profitability. A stall in starts or worsening cash consumption would strengthen the downside case.
• For MRNA, treat the melanoma result as an option on a broader oncology platform, not proof of earnings power. Reassess after subsequent clinical readouts and evidence that non-COVID products can support the revenue base; disappointing data or guidance would be a downside catalyst.
• If seeking a relative-value expression, consider only a small, defined-risk MRNA put spread around a known clinical or earnings catalyst, after checking current implied volatility and event timing. Falsify the bearish setup if follow-on data and pipeline progress support durable growth without reliance on optimistic long-range assumptions.