Should You Buy SpaceX Stock Below $135 Per Share? Here's What History Says.

The important mechanism here is not whether the stock is “cheap” versus IPO history, but whether the market can absorb a very large notional value with a very small tradable float. That setup tends to create choppy, supply-driven price action for months even if the underlying business remains strong, because early sellers and employees become the marginal price setters. The first-order move is sentiment; the second-order effect is multiple compression when investors realize the next leg of upside must come from operating proof, not scarcity.

The biggest risk window is the next 1-3 months, not the next year: any secondary selling, lockup releases, or employee monetization could dominate fundamentals and keep a lid on valuation. Conversely, if the company prints clean operational metrics and absorbs sales without much discount, that would signal the float overhang is less severe than feared. The thesis breaks if growth surprises enough to justify keeping a very high sales multiple despite broader risk-off pressure.

Contrarianly, the market may be over-fixated on generic IPO statistics and underweighting the asset-quality argument: a strategically important platform with quasi-monopolistic characteristics can trade above conventional comps for longer than expected. But the bar is still extremely high, so the asymmetry is poor for new buyers unless you have a clear view on near-term monetization and secondary supply. That makes this more of a patience trade than a conviction long at current levels.