S&P 500 futures are little changed as investors count down to Warsh's Jackson Hole address: Live updates

S&P 500 futures were near flat after edging -0.1% (Nasdaq-100 -0.2%), as investors awaited Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address for rate-path signals. Earnings drove single-stock moves: Gap shares surged ~15% after naming a new Old Navy CEO despite a mixed quarter, while Marvell slid ~6% on disappointing current-quarter non-GAAP gross margin guidance. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s nearly 9% post-earnings rally helped lift the tech sector, with the major indexes on track for their best day since Aug. 4.

Analysis

The tape is still rewarding earnings quality over mere top-line momentum. NVDA's strength says AI capex is intact, but MRVL's margin guide is the more important signal for the next 1-3 months: the market is likely to keep paying up for names with pricing power and punishing suppliers where mix and custom content dilute gross margin. That creates a relative-value setup inside semis rather than a blanket long-tech call.

GAP looks like a tactical squeeze, not yet a durable turnaround. A new CEO can lift the multiple for a few sessions, but the burden of proof shifts to traffic, inventory discipline, and gross margin into back-to-school and holiday; if those do not improve, the move should fade over weeks. The second-order read-through is that apparel peers with weak brand heat may briefly rally on sympathy, but only execution will matter by the next print.

The bigger binary is the Jackson Hole frame: if the new Fed chair leans hawkish, duration-sensitive growth can de-rate even after a strong AI tape, while banks and lenders with asset-sensitive NII may look better only if credit stays contained. If he sounds less restrictive, the market may quickly unwind the "higher for longer" trade and re-rate cyclicals. The thesis is falsified by any clear dovish pivot or a material re-acceleration in semiconductor gross margins that restores confidence in the whole AI supplier stack.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short MRVL into strength or via 1-2 month put spreads; the trade is that margin compression gets a higher multiple penalty than revenue beats. Cover if management materially raises gross margin guidance or AI networking demand broadens enough to restore pricing power.
• Pair long NVDA / short MRVL over the next 1-3 months to express AI spend continuing but value accruing to the platform with better pricing power. Risk: if the market rotates to second-tier AI beneficiaries, the spread can narrow quickly.
• Treat GAP as a trading vehicle only: buy only on follow-through above the gap-day volume cluster, otherwise fade the move into the next 1-2 weeks. The upside is a squeeze; the downside is that operational proof will likely take another quarter.
• No outright index beta ahead of Warsh's speech; if a hawkish surprise pushes 2Y yields higher, consider a short-duration/growth hedge rather than chasing the close. Falsify the hawkish setup if the speech signals tolerance for earlier cuts.