Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Chipotle, Starbucks, Skydance, Marathon Petroleum & more

Iran’s attacks on tankers through the Strait of Hormuz lifted oil prices, with Marathon Petroleum and APA up more than 4%; meanwhile, Starbucks reportedly explored acquiring Chipotle, whose shares rose more than 6% as Starbucks fell 5%. GlobalFoundries gained nearly 5% after announcing a multiyear, $2 billion manufacturing agreement with TSMC, and Haemonetics rose 16% on CSL’s expected U.S. rollout completion by the end of 2027. The roundup also showed divergent company and AI-trade moves: Levi cut its full-year net revenue growth forecast to 7%, Applied Digital reported fiscal Q1 revenue of nearly $342 million, up 322% year over year, and AI-linked stocks broadly weakened.

Analysis

The clearest tradable distinction is between a potentially persistent supply shock and a one-session risk premium. If Hormuz disruption tightens physical crude supply, upstream exposure (APA, FANG) has greater direct upside than refiners: MPC could face higher feedstock costs unless product cracks widen in tandem. CVX is less pure but offers some offset through upstream exposure. A rapid de-escalation or retreat in crude would unwind the geopolitics premium quickly.

AI weakness is exposing a funding and delivery distinction, not disproving demand. Broadcom’s reported financing effort could validate the scale of custom-chip demand while increasing scrutiny of customer concentration, capital commitments, and whether OpenAI-linked projects convert into funded orders. Applied Digital’s reported growth is not enough to establish durable economics: watch cash conversion, project funding, contracted-versus-built capacity, and whether hyperscalers choose self-build over leasing. That self-build option is a second-order competitive risk for data-center landlords and power suppliers, including Bloom Energy. Coherent and Lumentum remain exposed to sentiment and order-cycle expectations; a sector selloff alone is not evidence of weaker end demand.

The GFS–TSMC arrangement offers a long-dated utilization opportunity, but production beginning in 2028 limits near-term earnings relevance. Verify economics, capacity commitments, and whether the agreement displaces other production before treating the headline as a valuation catalyst. The potential Starbucks–Chipotle transaction is optionality, not a confirmed strategic outcome; absent terms, financing, and board confirmation, the divergent share reaction is not a reliable deal spread. CSL’s Haemonetics rollout is more tangible, but deployment timing does not establish recurring economics. Levi’s lower-end outlook raises demand risk; monitor subsequent guidance and inventory rather than extrapolating one revision.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Prefer a conditional, short-duration long in APA or FANG over a broad energy basket if crude strength persists and physical disruption is confirmed; use a defined loss limit because de-escalation can reverse the premium. Avoid treating MPC as an equivalent crude-price hedge; track refining cracks and crude differentials.
• Do not chase the AI selloff or buy APLD solely on revenue growth. Put AVGO and APLD on a financing-and-conversion watchlist: verify committed funding, customer contract terms, capex, cash flow, and delivery milestones. Thesis weakens if financing costs rise, project schedules slip, or self-build announcements replace contracted demand.
• Treat GFS as a long-horizon watch rather than a near-term earnings trade; seek confirmation of deal economics, capacity allocation, and customer commitments. The 2028 start date is a clear reason not to price the full benefit into near-term estimates.
• Stay neutral on the reported SBUX–CMG acquisition exploration until terms are confirmed; reassess only with credible price, financing, and regulatory details. For HAE, monitor rollout completion and financial contribution before extrapolating the share move; for LEVI, a further outlook cut or worsening inventory would falsify a stabilization thesis.