Packaging Machinery Market to Hit USD 98.12 Bn by 2031 with Fully Automatic and Robotics-Integrated Systems Capturing 55.12% Share, Says Mordor Intelligence

Mordor Intelligence forecasts the global packaging machinery market to grow from $76.03 billion in 2026 to $98.12 billion by 2031, a 5.23% CAGR. Growth is expected to be driven by automation, robotics, e-commerce fulfillment, flexible packaging, pharmaceutical serialization and demand for recyclable or paper-based formats. Asia-Pacific remains the leading market, while North American end-of-line automation and European sustainability-related machinery upgrades provide additional demand support.

Analysis

This is a low-conviction, non-company-specific datapoint rather than a near-term earnings catalyst. The investable read-through is that packaging-line capex is migrating toward higher-value automation, inspection, controls and service content; that favors Krones (KRNTY), ATS Corp (ATS.TO), ABB (ABB), Rockwell (ROK) and FANUC (FANUY) over commodity equipment vendors. The key second-order benefit is recurring aftermarket software, maintenance and spare-parts revenue, which can support mix-driven margin resilience even if unit equipment orders remain uneven.

Sustainable-substrate conversion is not uniformly positive for packaging producers: thinner, variable paper and recyclable mono-materials raise line-complexity and scrap risk before they lower total packaging cost. That creates a temporary pricing and qualification advantage for integrated equipment suppliers, while converters such as Amcor (AMCR), Smurfit WestRock (SW) and Packaging Corp. of America (PKG) may face higher customer qualification costs and slower productivity during transitions. Pharma coding/serialization is potentially the most defensible niche because validation and compliance raise switching costs, but order timing can be lumpy and delayed by customer validation cycles.

Consensus may over-extrapolate a mid-single-digit market-growth forecast into broad industrial upside. End-market capex is highly sensitive to food/beverage volumes, rates and corporate confidence; robotics demand can also be fulfilled through lower-cost Asian vendors, pressuring hardware margins. The thesis improves only if order books, book-to-bill and service attach rates accelerate—not merely if automation narratives remain favorable.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain a 6-12 month quality tilt toward KRNTY and ATS.TO versus AMCR: favor suppliers with automation/service exposure over packaging-material producers facing conversion execution risk. Reassess if reported order intake or book-to-bill falls below 1.0x for two consecutive quarters.
• Watch ROK, ABB and FANUY for a 1-3 month entry after earnings: initiate only where management cites packaging/consumer order acceleration and guidance is raised or reaffirmed despite weak discrete automation. Risk/reward is unattractive if the move is driven solely by broad AI/robotics multiple expansion.
• Use a KRNTY/AMCR relative-value basket rather than a directional sector long if global manufacturing PMIs remain below 50; the pair isolates higher automation content and aftermarket exposure. Stop the trade if AMCR demonstrates sustained volume-led margin expansion or KRNTY reports customer capex deferrals.
• Do not buy packaging-equipment exposure solely on this release. Set alerts for stainless-steel input inflation, European packaging-rule implementation milestones, and North American fulfillment-capex data; adverse steel costs or delayed regulation would compress equipment demand and extend customer payback periods.