Livestream shopping is gaining steam in the U.S., thanks to apps like TikTok and Whatnot

Live shopping in the U.S. is forecast to reach nearly $20B in 2026, up ~35% YoY, as TikTok Shop and Whatnot scale quickly. Beachwaver generated about $8,000 in sales in the first four hours of a late-July TikTok livestream, and roughly a quarter of its $1M in TikTok Shop sales in 2026 originated from livestreams. Growth is strong (TikTok reports live shopping sessions up 60%+ and live hours up 80%+ in H1 2026 vs H1 2025) despite headwinds including counterfeit/stolen-goods concerns, high seller take-rates (Whatnot 4%-8%, TikTok 6% plus processing), and intensifying competition for visibility.

Analysis

Live commerce is a category-specific conversion tool, not yet a broad retail revolution. The first beneficiaries are brands with high demo value, scarcity, or fandom economics — collectibles, beauty, fashion accessories — because the format compresses the discovery-to-checkout path and lowers the penalty for imperfect shelf space. That makes FNKO and, to a lesser extent, EBAY the cleaner public expressions; the real economics still sit with the host/platform that owns traffic, identity, and payment rails.

The competitive risk for AMZN and WMT is less lost sales today than lost influence over discovery economics over time. If social-first sessions become a repeatable acquisition channel, incumbents risk becoming fulfillment backends while newer platforms capture the high-margin first touch and ad-like monetization. But this only matters if the channel sustains repeat purchase and acceptable return/counterfeit rates; otherwise, it is just a higher-friction form of promotion with commission leakage.

The contrarian view is that consensus may be overestimating how transferable the model is outside a few visually rich categories. Most staples and low-consideration retail do not benefit enough from live entertainment to offset creator commissions and moderation costs, so the market may be extrapolating a China-like outcome too quickly. The best falsifier is a couple of earnings cycles without evidence that live sessions are moving a meaningful share of GMV or lowering customer acquisition costs; if that shows up, the narrative likely stays niche rather than structural.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Small tactical long FNKO into weakness, 1-3 month horizon: optionality on collectibles remaining one of the few categories where live commerce can sustainably lift sell-through; use a tight stop if management cannot show that live-channel mix is converting to repeat orders.
• Modest pair: long EBAY / short AMZN for 1-3 months, betting live-auction and community-driven selling is more incremental to eBay’s monetization than to Amazon’s already-saturated ecosystem; falsify if Amazon materially scales live video shopping or eBay’s live initiative stays immaterial on next earnings.
• No immediate trade in WMT or GAP; treat as watchlist names only. The channel is not yet broad enough to move big-box or apparel economics, and we would need evidence of sustained live-commerce contribution before underwriting a multiple re-rate.
• Set alert on BABA as a read-through rather than a catalyst trade: if Alibaba’s commerce disclosures show improved engagement/take-rate from live formats, it supports a modest China-commerce multiple expansion; absent that, the linkage remains mostly thematic.