Cathie Wood of ARK Invest Continues to Scoop up Bargain-Priced Crypto Stocks. Here Are 2 Stocks You Should Be Buying Now.

Coinbase (COIN) is down nearly 40% over the past 12 months but the article points to a potential rebound: 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA are expected to fall 25% and 61%, yet 2026–2028 growth is projected at 19% and 63% CAGRs. It also cites the CLARITY Act as a catalyst for stablecoin/digital-asset adoption and notes Coinbase trades at ~17x next year’s adjusted EBITDA on a $43.5B enterprise value. Circle (CRCL) is down over 20% despite stronger partnerships, with bulls highlighting stablecoin reserve income boosted by higher rates and valuing it at ~24x next year’s adjusted EBITDA on a ~$19.5B enterprise value.

Analysis

COIN is still mostly a levered proxy for crypto volatility, not a durable compounder on first principles. The market will pay up only if higher asset prices translate into sustained trading activity; otherwise, the multiple can compress even if balance-sheet optics look cheap. CRCL is the cleaner structural story: it monetizes stablecoin float, so its earnings path is more sensitive to reserve growth and policy clarity than to day-to-day token prices.

The second-order issue is competitive displacement, not just sector beta. If stablecoins keep scaling, the pressure lands first on cross-border payments, treasury workflows, and merchant settlement economics, where MA and V can defend share but may need to subsidize rails or partner economics to avoid erosion. That makes the near-term winners the toll collectors on the new plumbing, while the longer-term losers are incumbents whose take rates depend on legacy card settlement and FX spreads.

The key risk is duration: CRCL is helped by higher short rates now, but a cutting cycle would hit reserve income faster than adoption can reaccelerate. For COIN, the catalyst path is 1-3 months of crypto price/volume follow-through; without that, the market will treat the stock as a fading post-hype cyclical. The contrarian miss is that "crypto summer" is not one trade—stablecoin adoption is a multi-year payments adoption curve, while exchange fees remain a cyclical monetization layer.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Prefer a 3-6 month long CRCL / short COIN pair: CRCL has cleaner reserve-income leverage and less dependence on speculative trading volume; this should work unless BTC/ETH volatility re-accelerates sharply.
• Tactical long COIN only on confirmation of a sustained crypto breakout; size it as a momentum trade, not a core holding. Falsify if BTC and ETH stall for 4-6 weeks while trading volume fails to expand.
• Treat MA and V as longer-dated stablecoin-disruption watch items rather than immediate shorts; if USDC onchain transfer growth inflects and merchant/FX commentary weakens, consider a 6-18 month relative-value short.
• If rates begin to price 75-100 bps of cuts, reduce CRCL exposure first: reserve-income sensitivity makes it the more fragile name in a falling-yield regime.