Here are the stocks reporting next week that have a history of earnings beats and big share gains

A CNBC Pro screen identified 14 companies reporting next week that have beaten EPS estimates at least 80% of the time and averaged a next-day share gain of at least 1.5%. Paymentus has beaten estimates 88% of the time, with an average 3.6% next-day gain; Shopify’s figures are 82% and 3.1%, while HubSpot has a 100% beat rate and a 2.2% average gain. These are historical figures, not forecasts: the companies are scheduled to report Nov. 2, Nov. 3 and Nov. 4, respectively, and analyst views are mixed on Paymentus and HubSpot but more favorable on Shopify.

Analysis

The screen is a weak standalone signal: historical EPS beats can reflect estimate-setting behavior, while post-earnings returns depend on guidance and positioning. The actionable information is what each report must validate. For SHOP, holiday GMV, merchant growth and free-cash-flow conversion matter more than another headline EPS beat; broad analyst optimism leaves less room for a merely in-line outlook. A deceleration in holiday demand could also pressure commerce software peers, while sustained merchant adoption would support the ecosystem over a 6–18 month horizon. For HUBS, the analyst split creates potential for a positive surprise if customer growth, retention and AI-product monetization improve, but AI partnership announcements alone do not establish incremental revenue. For PAY, the Guidewire relationship is a possible distribution/integration lever, not evidence yet of material volume or earnings contribution; verify transaction growth and customer economics before extrapolating. In the immediate session, guidance and the stock’s reaction relative to its implied move should dominate the historical beat rate. Over 1–3 months, revisions to forward growth and cash generation are the key catalysts. Missing inputs include options-implied moves, valuation, and current estimate revisions; without them, pre-event risk/reward is not established.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid buying any of the three solely on the beat-frequency screen. Before taking event risk, compare the options-implied move with historical post-earnings moves and check estimate revisions; if those data do not show an attractive setup, stay flat.
• SHOP: Treat holiday-commerce guidance as the decisive catalyst. Consider a defined-risk call spread only after a results-driven hold above the post-report range and evidence of resilient GMV and free-cash-flow conversion; a weaker outlook or failed breakout falsifies the bullish setup.
• HUBS: Keep on watch for a post-report long only if customer/retention metrics and forward guidance substantiate AI monetization. If AI commentary is positive but those metrics or guidance disappoint, avoid chasing and reassess the growth thesis.
• PAY: Do not capitalize the Guidewire integration into estimates without evidence of customer adoption, payment volume and contribution to guidance. A material slowdown in those measures or lower forward guidance would negate the integration-led upside case.