Josh Brown says this is his AI roller coaster stock

Palantir reported Q2 2026 revenue of $1.94B, with growth accelerating to 93% year over year; U.S. commercial revenue rose 149%, U.S. government revenue grew 90%, and adjusted operating margin was 62%. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $8.15B, or 82% growth, and remaining deal value increased 83% to $13.1B, while the stock trades at 59x this year's guided revenue. Shares have been highly volatile—down 48% from last November's record before reaching a new record in October—and were around $195 after a 4% Wednesday decline; the article notes $185 as a trader stop level and $166 as a longer-term reference.

Analysis

PLTR’s key underwriting question is whether current customer expansion becomes repeatable, broad-based revenue—or whether exceptional deployments and a low initial software base are inflating near-term growth. A 157% net dollar retention rate and large deal backlog are supportive, but neither guarantees backlog conversion or that expansion rates persist as the installed base scales. Verify remaining deal value conversion, customer concentration, and cash-based margin performance; adjusted margins alone do not settle earnings quality.

The NVDA partnership is strategically useful as a deployment proof point for customers that want AI on proprietary data, but it does not by itself establish material incremental GPU demand. It could also sharpen competition with Microsoft and other vendors bundling cloud, models, and enterprise software. Over 6–18 months, the decisive risk is substitution: customers may use hyperscaler-native tools or competing platforms rather than pay a premium for a separate operating layer.

Near term, the November 2 report is a binary catalyst against a valuation that leaves little room for execution slippage. Sustained growth and guidance raises could keep momentum buyers engaged; deceleration, weaker backlog conversion, or margin deterioration could trigger multiple compression even if absolute growth remains strong. The technical breakout may support positioning, but it is not a valuation floor. The contrarian case is that the market may overfocus on the high sales multiple if PLTR compounds durable expansion; equally, comparing it with slower-growing software peers on headline margins can understate execution risk.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid chasing PLTR into the November 2 earnings event. For tactical exposure, consider only a small position after a close above the cited $213 breakout area; define failure at a closing break below $185. That is roughly 5% downside from the article’s cited ~$195 area, while upside is conditional on a renewed breakout rather than a fixed price target.
• For existing holders with a longer horizon, treat a weekly close below $166 as a thesis/technical review point, not an automatic fundamental sell signal. Reassess alongside guidance, backlog conversion, and cash-flow margins; a clean break would weaken the higher-low structure.
• Do not short PLTR solely on valuation: the short can be squeezed if growth and guidance continue to outrun expectations. A relative-value position versus MSFT or CRWD is a watch item, not a recommendation, until earnings provide comparable evidence on growth durability, customer expansion, and valuation.
• Monitor NVDA for evidence that the partnership produces incremental deployments or GPU demand, rather than assuming strategic validation translates into near-term sales. The PLTR thesis weakens if management cuts growth expectations, remaining deal value fails to convert, or customer expansion slows materially.